Monday, August 01, 2011

Percentage of Play 1

Like have been studied previous articles about bases percentage of possibility in bridge game or percentage play. Matters have been studied and article following we will see pregnant card distribution percentage play that happened in practice.
Let us see distribution example following:

You              Dummy        
K109           A86            
A9              K10753       
AK42           86              
KQ92          AJ5            

West        North         East         South
Pass          1           Pass           2NT
Pass         4NT          Pass           5
Pass         5NT          Pass           6NT

Contract 3NT, West of Lead Q, planning game of you!
As usual in planning game of Notrump you have to count sure trick. And like you see, in distribution combination above you have owned 10 sure tricks that is two Spades, two Heart, two Diamond, and four trick of club suit. Thereby, you still require three tricks to fulfill contract 6NT and single opportunity to get additional trick only from Heart suit. You how to play this deal?

Do you have found the way of playing good and have highest percentage? Way of playing best is: After winning A, play Club up at Dummy and hereinafter play small Heart up at 9 on-hand. Way of this will be successful if suit heart divided 3-3 or 4-2 with honor doubleton Heart in the East (Jx, Qx) or both honors reside in East (QJXX). Do not too bad; you please calculate opportunity of its percentage.

Try you pay attention contract 6 following:

You                      Dummy      
109654                AK2           
AQ9654               Void          
2                        AK42                  
2                        AKJ1055   

To contract 6 you, west start lead with Q. oftentimes in planning a game, we have to make assumption so that contract can succeed to be reached. This board you need to have assumption if card of trump divided to flatten 3-2, otherwise hence this contract cannot be saved.

Do you have owned plan to play this deal? Heart ruff? The mentioned is not possible hence best choice is to process Club suit. How to play club of suit? Do direct done by finesse, finesse ruff, or there any way of is other? If direct you club finesse, success opportunity only 50% while if you play by finesse ruff hence successful opportunity also only 50%. How if Club setup? Play A then Club of ruff, A, and Club of ruff again. By playing above, contract 6 will succeed to be reached if club of suit divided 3-3 or 4-2. With note that opponent holding short club nor hold honor spade or hold three cards of spade honor. Thereby, although opponent of over moment ruff play club suit is not a problem of because you enough play trump twice to drop opponent trump. Way of playing at like this has success opportunity more than 50%.

Let us analyze again, you of course still see that division 6 holded card both opponent hence opportunity of distribution 3-3 only 36% while distribution 4-2 is 48%. Trying you practice percentage list. Key in this game second trick, you have to play second diamond and discard of single club of suit. In this way, you'd more peaceful to do twice club ruff of suit. Way of playing at owning highest percentage like following that is: playing A, K then you club singleton discard on-hand. Afterwards, play small club which in ruff, return to dummy with A, small club again and ruff, then play K. Hereinafter play Club top, opponent can ruff but only this is single their trick. Way of playing like this will be successful if club of suit divided 3-3 or 4-2, a percentage owning very high successful opportunity that is 84%.

Useful hopefully and safe exercise!

Next article: Percentage of Play 2

Translate from Magazine Bridge Indonesia, Percentage of Play in Practice, by: Syahrial Ali, 12/07

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