Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Determining Highest Possibility from Division Card

Percentage Play for Declarer 2
If you think that conceiving all possibility of division of card such as those which have been studied at previous article (Percentage Play for Declarer), done in desk contest of bridge of course will require very long time and of course drag on! You correctness! Way of which effective is with many exercising at home that is by compiling card in so many distribution combinations, trying to practice so that if card distribution combination emerges in contest of bridge, you swiftly can analyze truly.

But there is a way of easier in counting the division of card distribution that is by thinking logically. Like example previous article, card which you pay attention only and Q of K (honor). Positioning the cards in Eastward and West, by applying technique of double finesse such as those which suggested, you will only fail if both key cards reside in West. How much is percentage of this card located in West? Let us calculate again distribution following without thinking of small cards.

                West                 East
                 KQ                 -
                 K                   Q
        ♥ Q                  K
        -                   KQ

By doing technique of double finesse, you are only failing when KQ Heart resides in West, one from four possibilities. Thereby you have chosen the way of fiddling around with opportunity of efficacy 75%.

Other example:
        ♥ AKJ1092


From card distribution above, you require 6 trick so that contract can reach. How way of playing this cards by applying percentage play? Before determining how to play this deal, try you pay attention possibility of division of holded card player of East and West.

1.  Let us try to play this deal, taking example you play A, K on the chance of Q follow to fall. By playing like this, you have opportunity to obtain 6 tricks equal to 31% that is possibility 6, 11, 16, 17, 18, 22, 26, 27, 28, 32, from 32 possibilities.
2.  Way of playing secondly this often done by many player of bridge that is by playing or A of K and second round do technique of finesse. As for opportunity of efficacy 36% ,  or 12 from 32 possibility or possibility 6, 11, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20, 21, 26, 27, 28, and 32.
3.  How when directs us do finesse first trick, when successes continue finesse next opportunity. In this way, you'd succeed to obtain 6 trick possibilities 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20, 21, 26, 27, 28 and 32 or 15 from 32 possibilities or equivalent by 47%, highest percentage in comparison with previous example but not such a way of best.
4.  Let us see again some possibility like example of above, matter possible cause we cannot yield 6 trick that is possibility 1,dan 2 , 8 , 9, 10, 12, 23, 24, 25, and 29, 30, 31. If this possibility we eliminate, and so opportunity to get 6 trick card distributions above is 50%, 60, and 75%.

And as practice, look for best percentage in playing card combination following to collect 3 tricks.

North : 3             South : QJ7654

Useful hopefully, and safe exercise

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Translated from Magazine Bridge Indonesia, Percentage Play, by Syahrial Ali, 8/06

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